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Key TakeawaysThe first few years of the 2020s have seen a number of acute economic, financial, and geopolitical disruptions on a worldwide scale, and it will take time for the ultimate consequences of these shocks to be fully felt. At PIMCO’s latest Secular Forum, we discussed how recent short-term cyclical dynamics are likely to have longer-lasting secular consequences.The global economy is exiting a period of massive fiscal and monetary policy interventions that are unlikely to be repeated ov

The global macro environment remains anything but normal, and investors will have to navigate a volatile and challenging path over the next five years. Disruption and uncertainty are likely to persist, and deglobalization will widen rifts in the global economy. A thoughtful, long-term focus should help investors along that challenging path. These are some of the key takeaways from PIMCO’s recent annual Secular Forum, with our investment professionals, guest speakers (see below), and Global Advi

ThesisInvestors and policymakers alike will have to come to grips with a radically different macro environment over the secular horizon as the post-financial-crisis, pre-pandemic New Normal decade of subpar-but-stable growth, below-target inflation, subdued volatility, and juicy asset returns is rapidly fading in the rearview mirror. What lies ahead is a more uncertain and uneven growth and inflation environment with plenty of pitfalls for policymakers. Amid disruption, division, and divergence,

SummaryFour macroeconomic disruptors are likely to become even more pronounced over the secular horizon: China?s rise, populism, climate-related risks, and technology.The two key swing factors that could produce upside or downside surprises are the state of the pandemic and the degree to which fiscal policy stays active or retreats.Investment success over the secular horizon will likely call for actively managing portfolios both to withstand disruptors and to pursue the opportunities that disrup