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Key takeawaysIn the wake of pandemic shocks, economies appear more “normal” than at any time since 2019. Yet policy rates remain elevated. As central banks cut interest rates to more neutral levels, key questions include how fast they get there and what those neutral levels will look like. Here are our near-term economic views:The factors that supported relative U.S. economic strength are diminishing. That suggests some recoupling with the rest of the world and further progress on curbing infl

The global investment landscape is set to be transformed in the months ahead as the trajectories of major economies diverge more noticeably. Central banks, which tightened policy in unison to curb the pandemic inflationary spike, will likely follow varied paths when cutting interest rates. While many large, developed market (DM) economies are slowing, the U.S. has maintained its surprisingly strong momentum, with several supportive factors poised to persist.Those growth drivers could keep U.S. i

The steepest interest-rate-hiking cycle in decades has set global economic activity on a course that remains difficult to map, making it especially important to respect risks and to look to build portfolios capable of performing well in a variety of conditions.After major economies showed surprising resilience in 2023, we anticipate a downshift toward stagnation or mild contraction in 2024. The standout strength of the U.S. is likely to fade over our six- to 12-month cyclical horizon. Countries

Our September Cyclical Forum was the first to be held in London, where the economic situation today reflects what’s happening around the world.The Bank of England (BOE) is nearing the end of a long journey to raise interest rates. This tightening of monetary policy has fueled increased volatility in U.K. financial markets, and there are concerns that the British economy could soon stall or slip into a recession.Similar scenarios are playing out globally as countries continue their efforts to qu