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Key TakeawaysThe first few years of the 2020s have seen a number of acute economic, financial, and geopolitical disruptions on a worldwide scale, and it will take time for the ultimate consequences of these shocks to be fully felt. At PIMCO’s latest Secular Forum, we discussed how recent short-term cyclical dynamics are likely to have longer-lasting secular consequences.The global economy is exiting a period of massive fiscal and monetary policy interventions that are unlikely to be repeated ov

The global macro environment remains anything but normal, and investors will have to navigate a volatile and challenging path over the next five years. Disruption and uncertainty are likely to persist, and deglobalization will widen rifts in the global economy. A thoughtful, long-term focus should help investors along that challenging path. These are some of the key takeaways from PIMCO’s recent annual Secular Forum, with our investment professionals, guest speakers (see below), and Global Advi

ThesisInvestors and policymakers alike will have to come to grips with a radically different macro environment over the secular horizon as the post-financial-crisis, pre-pandemic New Normal decade of subpar-but-stable growth, below-target inflation, subdued volatility, and juicy asset returns is rapidly fading in the rearview mirror. What lies ahead is a more uncertain and uneven growth and inflation environment with plenty of pitfalls for policymakers. Amid disruption, division, and divergence,

SummaryFour macroeconomic disruptors are likely to become even more pronounced over the secular horizon: China?s rise, populism, climate-related risks, and technology.The two key swing factors that could produce upside or downside surprises are the state of the pandemic and the degree to which fiscal policy stays active or retreats.Investment success over the secular horizon will likely call for actively managing portfolios both to withstand disruptors and to pursue the opportunities that disrup

Key takeawaysIn the wake of pandemic shocks, economies appear more “normal” than at any time since 2019. Yet policy rates remain elevated. As central banks cut interest rates to more neutral levels, key questions include how fast they get there and what those neutral levels will look like. Here are our near-term economic views:The factors that supported relative U.S. economic strength are diminishing. That suggests some recoupling with the rest of the world and further progress on curbing infl

The global investment landscape is set to be transformed in the months ahead as the trajectories of major economies diverge more noticeably. Central banks, which tightened policy in unison to curb the pandemic inflationary spike, will likely follow varied paths when cutting interest rates. While many large, developed market (DM) economies are slowing, the U.S. has maintained its surprisingly strong momentum, with several supportive factors poised to persist.Those growth drivers could keep U.S. i

The steepest interest-rate-hiking cycle in decades has set global economic activity on a course that remains difficult to map, making it especially important to respect risks and to look to build portfolios capable of performing well in a variety of conditions.After major economies showed surprising resilience in 2023, we anticipate a downshift toward stagnation or mild contraction in 2024. The standout strength of the U.S. is likely to fade over our six- to 12-month cyclical horizon. Countries

Our September Cyclical Forum was the first to be held in London, where the economic situation today reflects what’s happening around the world.The Bank of England (BOE) is nearing the end of a long journey to raise interest rates. This tightening of monetary policy has fueled increased volatility in U.K. financial markets, and there are concerns that the British economy could soon stall or slip into a recession.Similar scenarios are playing out globally as countries continue their efforts to qu